Across the chip industry, estimates suggest that China’s share of fabrication will increase from 15 percent at the start of the decade to 24 percent of global capacity by 2030, overtaking Taiwan and South Korea in terms of volume. China will almost certainly still lag technologically. But if more of the chip industry moves to China, the country will have more leverage in demanding technology transfer. It will become more costly for the U.S. and other countries to impose export restrictions, and China will have a broader pool of workers from which to draw.
