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May 13 - May 16, 2024
Universal values are rejected because they supposedly threaten the distinctiveness of particular cultures and civilisations; that, in turn, often shades into racism and an emphasis on ethnic purity.
The failure of democracy in the United States would have been a cataclysmic global event. The last fifteen years have seen the most sustained decline in political freedom around the world since the 1930s. But throughout the 1930s, the two most powerful countries in the world, the United States and Britain, remained liberal democracies.
most of the Republican Party had essentially given up on democracy, in favour of the preservation of a ‘White Christian America of its imagination’, which it believed to be ‘on the verge of destruction’.
In the Age of the Strongman, it is getting harder to preserve the faith that truth, bravery and popular protest will ultimately triumph over authoritarian rule. From Belarus to Venezuela, from Russia to Hong Kong, the contemporary evidence often seems to point the other way.
NATO’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan over the summer of 2021 may have persuaded the Russian leader that, if he attacked Ukraine, the Biden administration would be too weak and inward-looking to mount an effective response.
administration withdrew American support for the war in Yemen and agreed to release the CIA report on Khashoggi’s killing. MBS and the Saudis had to adjust fast. Peace moves in Yemen were announced and the Saudi blockade of Qatar was lifted. But the pressure campaign on MBS proved unsustainable. Faced with a struggle for influence in the Middle East with Russia and China, the Biden administration could not afford an antagonistic relationship with Saudi Arabia. Above all, the soaring energy prices caused by the Ukraine war forced America’s hand. In August 2022, Biden paid a humbling visit to
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Oil will always be more important
In June 2021, Benjamin Netanyahu lost power in Israel after twelve uninterrupted years in office – and numerous inconclusive elections.
The coalition government that replaced Netanyahu stretched from the left of the Israeli political spectrum to the far-right. It even included Ra’am, an Islamist party linked to the Muslim Brotherhood – the first Arab-Israeli party to serve in a government of the Jewish state. The sole unifying principle for the coalition partners was a shared determination to get Netanyahu out of power. Even so, the new government could only muster a parliamentary majority of one. Netanyahu, although on trial for corruption, remained outwardly confident that he would soon return to the prime minister’s office.
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The Filipino strongman’s preferred option was to be replaced by his daughter, Sara. But Sara chose to run as the vice-presidential running mate of Bongbong Marcos, the son of the former Filipino dictator, Ferdinand Marcos – who was intent on rewriting history, to portray the Marcos dictatorship as a golden era of progress and stability. The victory of the Marcos–Duterte ticket in the 2022 presidential election represented a fusion of two authoritarian political clans, with worrying implications for Filipino democracy.
Duterte’s retirement demonstrated that not all strongman rulers will cling to power whatever the consequences.
They are superb at building a personal following – but they lack the technocratic skills and patience to govern effectively.
Past precedent suggests that the Age of the Strongman will also come to an end, at some point. But it could last as long as thirty years.
A new ideology emerged, achieved some initial successes, and so gained fresh prestige and attracted new followers. A sense of ideological momentum then created a demand for the original ideas behind the movement to be pushed further and faster. And that led to overreach, eventually created a backlash and the demand for a new approach.
But in the era of strongman politics, international cooperation is no longer in fashion – as the fractured global response to the coronavirus has illustrated.
By 2020, China accounted for 29 per cent of global emissions of carbon dioxide – more than the US and EU combined. Without Chinese action, there will be no effective global response to climate change.
His replacement – or even discussion of his eventual departure – is profoundly destabilising. Once the strongman is gone, therefore, all sorts of interests are threatened as rivals jostle for power and scores are settled.
When a strongman loses power, the stability of the entire political system built around him is at risk. This compulsion to stay in office is a clear feature of the Age of the Strongman.
