The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping's China

by Kevin Rudd

As a result, the US often concludes that the best course of action is to distrust anything the CCP says. Instead, America’s predisposition is to connect the dots itself, as best it can, to try to divine China’s actual strategic intentions—in other words, to assume the worst and to prepare accordingly. This is understandable within the framework of the long-standing realist traditions of American foreign policy. It can, however, also be counterproductive if it discounts Chinese declaratory positions in their entirety. China’s official media, while rarely providing a clear picture of Chinese political decision-making, nonetheless can be helpful in understanding the conceptual framework within which the party is operating and where changing political and policy positions may be emerging. After all, CCP leadership has to communicate its message to its ninety-five million members and to the country at large and, in doing so, cannot rely on classified party documents alone. Reading the Chinese media is sometimes like watching a movie on mute without subtitles: you have a general idea of what’s going on, but other sources of information are necessary to provide a better, albeit never complete, understanding of the detailed story line.