The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping's China

by Kevin Rudd

In Thucydides’s History of the Peloponnesian War, the ancient historian concluded that “it was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” Allison explains that Thucydides’s Trap is “the natural, inevitable discombobulation that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power.” In Thucydidean logic, the threat of such displacement causes structural stress in the relationship, which makes a violent clash the rule, not the exception. According to Allison’s model, based on his examination of multiple historical case studies, war is more likely than not. Embedded in Allison’s logic is the implication that there are also real and perceived tipping points in the great power relationship in question, which means the question for policy makers is what to do to either preempt them or respond to them before it’s too late.