that the nuclear factor is seen as so irrelevant to the risk of conventional conflict over Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the East China Sea that this perceived “minimal risk” of nuclear escalation actually serves to exacerbate the risk of conventional conflict? These are all critical considerations for the future. Too often in the US-China debate, they are pushed to one side because they are too complex, too unknowable, or too remote. I would argue the risk of nuclear escalation between the US and China must be considered afresh.
