The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping's China

by Kevin Rudd

But while China’s understanding of modern America may be imperfect, it is more disciplined and sophisticated than what we find today among Washington political elites in their understanding of what actually makes China tick. Not only do Chinese strategists rigorously keep up-to-date with Washington’s English-language policy debates (which Washington elites do not do in reverse), but they also use a consistent analytic framework to make sense of their strategic environment. In line with Marxist-Leninist dialectical analysis, Chinese leaders are trained to identify what is called thesis and antithesis, trend and countertrend, and action and reaction across politics, economics, society, technology, and international relations. This, in turn, is based on a deeper assessment of the unity of opposites, contradictions, and struggle as drivers of historical change. These formal assessments of China’s international operating environment are the product of multiple inputs from across the party, government departments, and official think tanks. As good Marxists, the Chinese leadership regard their conclusions—never reached lightly over a weekend but usually over several years—as revealing long-term trends that are “scientifically and objectively true,” to