The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping's China

by Kevin Rudd

For example, in 2012, Chinese vessels massed around a Philippine-controlled feature in the South China Sea known as Scarborough Shoal. Seemingly attempting to seize control of it, a dangerous standoff with the Philippine Navy ensued until Obama administration officials mediated a deal for both sides to withdraw. The Philippines’ ships ultimately withdrew, but China’s stayed. Shocked American officials learned their lesson, but Beijing was emboldened. By 2014, China was engaged in a major campaign to create “facts on the ground” in the South China Sea, with swarms of dredging ships pouring sand onto reefs and islets in order to create multiple artificial islands, some large enough to house military-style airstrips, hangars, and supply depots. Standing beside President Obama at a summit in 2015, Xi Jinping pledged that the islands would never be militarized. American officials were doubtful, scoffing at China’s public protestations that its island-reclamation efforts were merely to “assist meteorological and oceanographic research.”