How the World Really Works: A Scientist’s Guide to Our Past, Present and Future

by Vaclav Smil

Given the continent’s still-high fertility rates, further expansion of cultivated land will be inevitable in Africa, but only limited extensions should take place in most of Asia, while Europe, North America, and Australia (with already-excessive food production and aging populations) should see further declines in cultivated land. The amount of land used in food production could be reduced with the combination of better farming practices, reduced food waste, and the widespread adoption of moderate meat consumption. As already explained in chapter 2, reversion to preindustrial farming is inconceivable in a world of nearly 8 billion people, but getting higher yields with existing inputs (agricultural intensification) conforms to a long-established trend, and the elimination of many wasteful practices could produce higher yields even with reduced fertilizer or pesticide use. A convincing large-scale, decade-long (2005–2015) demonstration of this included nearly 21 million farmers cultivating about a third of China’s cropland: they were able to raise staple grain yields by 11 percent while reducing the application of nitrogen per hectare by 15–18 percent.