the example of the young widow from chapter 7, she knows it is true that her husband died, and knows they went to the hospital in the middle of the night. She is subconsciously tempted to believe that because one antecedent (went to the hospital) is associated with one outcome (he died), the other antecedent (went to the hospital earlier) must be associated with the other outcome (he would not die). But that tempting logic does not make it true. It is not necessarily the case that if they had gotten to the hospital earlier in the evening, he would not have died.
