The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization

by Peter Zeihan

The 2020s and 2030s will be exceedingly uncomfortable for many, but this too will pass. Best of all, we can already see the sun starting to burn through the clouds. A few things to consider: Capital availability is a function of demographics. The Boomer generation’s mass retirement in the 2020s is to our detriment. They are taking their money with them. But by 2040, the youngest Millennials will be in their forties, and their money will have made the system flush once more. On the topic of demographics, the 2040s will host two simultaneous beneficial outcomes. The kids of the youngest Millennials will be entering the workforce, heralding a sort of a return to “normal” for the American labor market. Nearly as important, Mexico’s demographic structure will be shaped a bit like a chimney, similar to that of the United States in 2000. That was a magic moment in America when we had a similar number of children and young workers and mature workers, making the United States capital rich and consumer rich and productivity rich while still having a future generation to plan and hope for. ¡Viva Mexico! Between now and 2040, America’s reindustrialization will be complete. Mexican-American linkages will prove to be far tighter and far more consequential than anything the United States ever achieved with its northern neighbor. Most American refineries will be using North American–produced crude rather than extracontinental imports. The inflation and systemic stress that come from quick...