The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization

by Peter Zeihan

The second-largest piece of the globe that can be “gathered” to help cities survive is the continent of Australia plus the islands of New Zealand. Like the Western Hemisphere, the pair of southwest Pacific nations have far more resources and foodstuffs than they could ever consume. And just as Mexico and the United States now boast a mutually reinforcing relationship, so too will the Aussies and Kiwis enjoy one with the countries of Southeast Asia. The Southeast Asian nations run the gamut in terms of levels of wealth and technical sophistication, from hypertechnocratic Singapore, to nearly preindustrial Myanmar. From most points of view, such diversification is a feature, not a bug. It enables multi-step manufacturing systems to occur regionally, without overly needing to tap anything beyond. Add in reasonable levels of food and energy supply within the bloc, balanced out by Australian and New Zealander assistance, and this region should be able to squeak by. The problem for this Southeast Asian bloc is that (a) no one is large and in charge, and (b) the group lacks the military capacity to look out for its varied interests. This need not end in disaster, nor is it likely to. Both the Americans and the Japanese will have reason to seek economic and strategic partnerships with the Southeast Asians (including the Aussies and Kiwis). The trick for all three sides of the relationship will be to keep Japanese and American views in rough alignment. A serious falling-out would b...