The third category are those exporters that simply cannot maintain the input flows required to keep things going without a perfect constellation of unlikely geopolitical factors that are largely beyond their capacity to shape. They won’t face catastrophic production declines, but they’ll have to get used to agriculture becoming intermingled with geopolitical threats—and in some years that means crops simply won’t perform to snuff. This is the future for Brazil, Croatia, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Pakistan, and South Africa.
