The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization

by Peter Zeihan

Monetary expansion is inflationary. Endemic capital shortages inject inflation directly into finance. The falling consumption of an aging population is deflationary, while breaking supply chains are inflationary. Building new industrial plant to replace international supply chains is inflationary while the process is under way, and disinflationary once the work is completed. New digital technologies tend to be disinflationary, unless international supply chains are needed to keep them running, in which case they are inflationary. Currency collapses are inflationary in the countries that suffer them as everyone shifts from cash to goods they can hoard, but such collapses are disinflationary in the countries where fleeing capital seeks succor.