The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization

by Peter Zeihan

My world cannot function without coffee (7th by value) and I am . . . concerned. Coffee is a lot like cocaine . . . in terms of where it can be grown. It demands a very specific mix of elevation, temperature, and moisture conditions. Too dry and the crop shrivels. Too wet and it rots. Too hot and it is bitter. Too cold and it won’t flower. Roughly 7,500 feet is the ideal elevation, putting it well above most lines of human habitation and making servicing and transport tricky. Mass coffee culture is only possible in a globalized system in which the inputs can access such often-near-inaccessible areas. The Arabica coffee you get at everything from McDonald’s to your favorite espresso bar faces the greatest challenges, while the robusta coffee that goes into instant is far more heat and drought tolerant. The combination of deglobalization and climate change suggests that most of the world is about to get a coffee downgrade.