The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization

by Peter Zeihan

History, unfortunately, offers us some fairly clear paths forward. As the reliability of long-haul maritime transport evaporates and the United States—by far Europe’s largest market—goes its own way, the Europeans will put a premium on protecting what they have and know: their own supply chains and their own markets. That Europe is starting as the most protectionist set of economies of the Order era doesn’t help. The end result will be the creation of several mini-Europes as various major powers attempt to throw economic, cultural, and (in some cases) military nets over wider regions. The United Kingdom, France, Germany, Sweden, and Turkey will all go their own way and attempt to attract and/or coerce select neighbors to come along for the ride. Integration will suffer appropriately. For those of you who know your Persian, Greek, Roman, Byzantine, Ottoman, German, British, French, medieval, or early industrial histories, this will feel disturbingly familiar. After all, history has no endgame.