The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization

by Peter Zeihan

That said, there is a complementary technology out there that might—emphasis on the word “might”—be able to square these circles: batteries. The idea is that greentech-generated power can be stored in batteries until such time as it is needed. Intermittency? Dispatchability? Supply-demand mismatches? All solved! Even transmission distances can be shortened in some cases.

Unfortunately, what works beautifully in theory faces a couple of problems in practice. The first is supply chains. Just as oil’s production is concentrated, so too is the primary input for the best battery chemistry of the day: lithium. And just as oil needs to be refined into usable products, raw lithium must be processed into concentrate, refined into metals, and then built into battery assemblies.

That scale is the second problem. Lithium batteries are expensive. They are the second- or third-most-expensive component in the average smartphone, and that’s a battery that stores but a few watt-hours. They comprise in excess of three-quarters the cost and weight of most electric vehicles, and that’s a battery that stores but a few kilowatt-hours.

City-grid batteries require megawatt-days. Achieving meaningful greentech power storage would require grid-level battery systems that could store a minimum of four hours of power to cover the bulk of that daily high-demand period. Assuming that the technological improvements in the world of batteries that have unfolded since 1990 continue into 2026, the cost of a four-hour lithium grid storage system will be about $240 per megawatt-hour of capacity, or six times that of the standard combined-cycle natural gas plant, which is currently the most common electricity-generating asset in the United States.

As of 2021, the United States had 1,100 gigawatts of installed electricity-generation capacity, but only 23.2 gigawatts of electricity storage. Roughly 70 percent of that 23.2 gigawatts is something called “pumped storage,” in essence using excess generated power to pump water uphill, and then allowing that water to flow down a watercourse to power a generator as needed.

Eighth, there is a little-discussed financial issue that might soon make this entire discussion moot. In places with good solar or wind resources, most current price assessments suggest that the combined lifetime cost of fuel, maintenance, and installation for greentech versus conventional is more or less equal. From a financial point of view, the primary difference is when capital must be committed. About one-fifth of the total costs for the entire life span of a conventional power are spent up front on land acquisition and facility construction, with the rest dribbled out over decades for fuel purchase and facility maintenance. In contrast, for greentech nearly the entire cost is up front, two-thirds up front in the case of onshore wind turbines. After all, fuel costs are zero.