The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization

by Peter Zeihan

Back-of-the-envelope math done by folks who live in the intersection of demographics and statistics (which looks a lot like calculus to me) suggests that places with fair-to-crappy demographics, like Spain, the United Kingdom, or Australia, will suffer a drag on their annual growth of about 2 percent of GDP annually. The truly terminal demographies of Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, and China are looking at at least 4 percent, while the youngish populations of America and France will only suffer about a 1 percent reduction. Add that up for just a single decade and it is difficult to imagine how the “inevitable rise” of places like Germany and China can even survive, much less function, much less dominate.