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China with the multiplicity of options across Asia and it should come as no surprise that this corner of the world is home to fully half of the globe’s manufacturing supply chain steps—as well as the source of some three-quarters of the world’s electronics, cellular, and computing products.
Far more than automotive or computers, electronics are a huge product category and are among the most labor intensive of the manufacturing sectors. It may sound sexy to build semiconductors domestically, but if you want to employ a couple million people, it’s electronics you’re after.
The two subsectors that will see the biggest shifts are textiles and wiring. Textiles is a low-skilled, labor-intensive industry while wiring is low-skilled and electricity intensive. Since the dawn of the Industrial Age, these sectors have been go-tos for newly industrializing countries trying to get their foot in the door.
quick-grow oats need three months from planting to harvest. Corn takes six. Six months is typically also the soonest a hog goes to slaughter. Nine for cattle, although twelve is better—and that assumes feed lots and not free-range. Want to go organic and free-range? You’re now talking twenty-four months. Minimum. Orchards typically don’t produce for the first three years. Some take eight.
More land, some 11.5 billion acres, is under cultivation than at any other time in human history. More crops—in 2020, total agricultural output was worth about $8 trillion—are in production than any time in human history. That’s roughly 10 percent of global GDP, the largest value of any economic sector. More of those foods, over one-third by value, are internationally traded than at any other time in human history.
electrification technology does not yet exist that can manage the high power-to-size requirements for either heavy equipment or long-range oceanic shipping. There simply is neither an existing technology nor an imminent technological revolution that can replace oil and natural gas in the agricultural sector.
hyperspecialized globalized agriculture has created for itself is that we now grow or raise each plant or animal where it makes the most economic sense within a holistic system. For example, cattle have shifted into the Great Plains, while corn and soy dominate the Midwest. In the pre-Order days, the two would have been more or less colocated.
Seeds for planting sounds simple, but in many cases hybridized, genetically modified, or otherwise specialized seeds are far more expensive than simply holding back some of the previous year’s harvest. Such specialized seeds easily lead to harvests triple of what could be grown the old-fashioned way. In 2021, seeds for a single acre of corn plantings ran about $111.