The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization

by Peter Zeihan

threats—and in some years that means crops simply won’t perform to snuff. This is the future for Brazil, Croatia, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Pakistan, and South Africa. Fourth among the exporters are those places that have carved out a place for themselves among the agricultural powers of the Order but have zero chance of playing a significant role in the Disorder. Most of their supply chains lie outside of territories they can reach, and most face security concerns that will make it impossible for them to maintain what has become their business as usual: Bulgaria, Estonia, Czech Republic, Ethiopia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Mali, Romania, Slovakia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The real desperation is on the importers’ side of the ledger. The first category are those who are close enough to exporters both geographically and diplomatically that they need not overworry about getting cut off: Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Iceland, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Norway, Peru, the Philippines, Portugal, Singapore, and the United Kingdom. Japan also falls into this category not because it is close to food suppliers, but because it has the naval reach to go out and secure what it needs. The second group of importers is where things get uncomfortable. Food will be available, but at a price—and not one that is entirely denominated purely in financial terms. These importers will need to bend to their suppliers’ will. Should they not, foodstuffs will be directed elsewh...