The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping's China

by Kevin Rudd

However, of all the moving parts at play in these scenarios, there are four in particular that should be analyzed most closely: three domestic economic factors and one external, where the policy settings lie largely in Chinese rather than American hands. The first remains the long-term sustainability of the emerging Chinese economic growth model, given Xi’s move to the left on Chinese economic policy, and the uncertain effects this will have on private-sector business confidence. The second is the extent to which China’s rapid demographic decline brings about earlier-than-anticipated impacts on domestic consumption, labor market cost, and government finances. The third is whether China can succeed in closing the semiconductor manufacturing gap between itself and the US and its allies, given that silicon chips underpin the future drivers of the global digital economy and military technology, including the unfolding artificial intelligence revolution. Finally, it remains to be seen how China will resolve its current internal dispute between its rising wolf warrior generation and its older traditional cadre of professional diplomats on how Chinese diplomacy should be conducted.

4 important moving parts in China's future