The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping's China

by Kevin Rudd

The foremost dynamic driving China’s evolving perception of the region’s importance is long-term energy security. The Middle East represents 47 percent of China’s imported oil and about 12 percent of its natural gas needs, a dependence that is only expected to continue to grow. At the same time, the United States, in large part because of its hydraulic-fracturing revolution over the last decade, has grown much less dependent on the Middle East for its energy needs. The Gulf states are acutely aware of this shift, as the share of their sales going to China continues to grow. By 2020, China represented around 23 percent of total Saudi oil sales, 22 percent of Iraqi sales, 28 percent of Iranian sales, 9.4 percent of United Arab Emirates sales, and 14 percent of total Qatari LNG sales.