The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping's China

by Kevin Rudd

China’s national security strategy is, in part, aimed at minimizing China’s vulnerability to the interdiction of its oil supplies in the event of a global or regional crisis—including the possibility of armed conflict with the United States. About 80 percent of all Chinese oil imports pass through the strategic choke points of the Strait of Hormuz between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, and the Strait of Malacca between the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. China’s continuing interest in securing land-based oil and gas pipelines from central Asia, Russia, and possibly Iran is driven by the desire to reduce these vulnerabilities in energy supply. But its continued reliance on maritime energy imports—and the fact that 80 percent of total global sea trade crosses the Indian Ocean—explains China’s deep interest in developing its military capacity to protect its sea line of communication linking the Gulf to China’s eastern seaboard through the Indian Ocean.

China and Indian ocean