What is the likelihood of such a scenario coming to pass? On the balance of probabilities, Xi’s current prospects for success appear reasonable. However, this outcome depends on three critical variables. First, the success or failure of Xi’s adjustment of China’s domestic economic model in generating sufficient long-term, sustainable growth while avoiding social instability and also funding China’s large-scale military needs. Second, the success or failure of China’s new national technology strategy in closing the gap between Beijing and Washington on the critical technologies of the
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