The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping's China

by Kevin Rudd

For all these reasons, while China is likely to reach its year-end target of 6 percent economic growth in 2021, the era of high growth in China is over. Even ahead of Xi’s crackdown on the private sector and the Evergrande crisis, a consensus had emerged among global economists that China’s economic growth will probably slow to around 4 percent by 2025. This forecast deceleration also reflects China’s aging population, declining workforce, weak productivity growth, a negative trade environment, and high levels of official debt. Added to this is the as yet unknown impact of Xi’s macro pivot to public across the overall political economy at the potential expense of China’s hitherto remarkable culture of private-sector dynamism. Private-sector investment, both domestic and from foreign sources, is likely to slow further—stranded in a period of great uncertainty between Xi’s common prosperity campaign at home and the threat of US-China decoupling abroad.

China's Slow down by 2025