How the World Really Works: The Science Behind How We Got Here and Where We're Going

by Vaclav Smil

And what about countries that have not pushed renewables at extraordinary expense? Japan is the foremost example: in the year 2000 about 83 percent of its primary energy came from fossil fuels; in 2019 that share (due to the post-Fukushima loss of nuclear generation and the need for higher fuel imports) was 90 percent![82] And while the US has greatly reduced its dependence on coal—replaced by natural gas in electricity generation—the country’s share of fossil fuels in primary energy supply was still 80 percent fossil in 2019. Meanwhile China’s share of fossil fuels fell from 93 percent in the year 2000 to 85 percent in 2019—but this relative decline was accompanied by a near tripling of the country’s fossil fuel demand. The economic rise of China was the main reason why the global consumption of fossil fuels rose by about 45 percent during the first two decades of the 21st century, and why, despite extensive and expensive expansion of renewable energies, the share of fossil fuels in the world’s primary energy supply fell only marginally, from 87 percent to about 84 percent.