The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict

by Elbridge A. Colby

Tobin, “Xi’s Vision for Transforming Global Governance.” See also Rushabh Doshi, “The Long Game: Chinese Grand Strategy after the Cold War” (Ph.D. diss., Harvard University, 2019).

Richard J. Heuer Jr., “Nosenko: Five Paths to Judgment,” in Inside CIA’s Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency’s Internal Journal, 1955–1992, ed. H. Bradford Westerfield (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1995).

See, e.g., Christopher Andrew and Vasili Mitrokhin, The Sword and the Shield: The Mitrokhin Archive and the Secret History of the KGB (New York: Basic Books, 1985); Christopher Andrew and Vasili Mitrokhin, The World Was Going Our Way: The KGB and the Battle for the Third World (New York: Basic Books, 2005); and John G. Hines, Ellis M. Mishulovich, and John F. Shull, “Soviet Intentions, 1965–1985: An Analytical Comparison of U.S.-Soviet Assessments during the Cold War,” OSD-Net Assessment Contract #MDA903-92-C-0147 (McLean, VA: BDM Federal, September 22, 1995), 68–71, https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB426/docs/25.%20Series%20of%20six%20Interviews%20with%20Dr.Tsygichko%20by%20John%20G.%20Hines-beginning%20December%2010,%201990.pdf.

National Security Council, “U.S. Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific,” (Washington, DC: White House, 2018), 7, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/IPS-Final-Declass.pdf [URL inactive]; Lawrence Eagleburger, “Taiwan Arms Sales,” cable to James Lilley (Washington, DC: White House, July 10, 1982), https://www.ait.org.tw/wp-content/uploads/sites/269/State-cable-of-1982-07-10-200235.pdf; and George Shultz, “Assurances for Taiwan,” cable to James Lilley (Washington, DC: US Department of State, August 17, 1982), https://www.ait.org.tw/wp-content/uploads/sites/269/State-cable-of-1982-08-17-200235-1.pdf. On declassification of these cables, US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs David R. Stilwell stated: “We have changed nothing about these longstanding policies. What we are doing, though, is making some important updates to our engagement with Taiwan to better reflect these policies and respond to changing circumstances.” Stilwell, “The United States, Taiwan, and the World: Partners for Peace and Prosperity” (Washington, DC: Heritage Foundation, August 31, 2020), https://2017-2021.state.gov/The-United-States-Taiwan-and-the-World-Partners-for-Peace-and-Prosperity/.

Pape, Bombing to Win, 21–25.

See, e.g., Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1994), 424; John Lewis Gaddis, Strategies of Containment: A Critical Appraisal of American National Security Policy during the Cold War, rev. ed. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005), 37; and Walter Isaacson and Evan Thomas, The Wise Men: Six Friends and the World They Made (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1986), 34.