The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict

by Elbridge A. Colby

A comparable logic holds for US relations with Russia. The stronger China is, the more the United States and other states have an interest in Russia’s participation in, or even just tacit support for, an anti-hegemonic coalition against China. Given Russia’s significant power and its geographical position astride China’s northern border as well as regions where China could increase its power base, such as Central Asia and Northeast Asia, Moscow is a natural potential collaborator with or even member of an anti-hegemonic coalition against China. Moreover, Moscow shares this interest. Russia would find its autonomy and even its territorial integrity at substantial risk were China to establish hegemony over Asia. Because Russia is far weaker than China and likely to become more so given their respective growth trajectories, an unchecked China would mean that Russia’s autonomy and integrity would increasingly become a matter of China’s sufferance. This vulnerability will be all the greater the more isolated Russia is from any anti-hegemonic coalition against China in Asia, since any such coalition will be less likely to try to protect Russia if Moscow refused to cooperate with it. The United States and Russia thus share an interest in preventing China’s regional hegemony in Asia, and this shared interest points toward increasing collaboration over time.