Chinese economic coercion in this context would be more likely to catalyze the defenders’ resolve than lead to their capitulation. Beijing would in effect be seeking to reverse a local military defeat by turning the conflict into a societal contest of wills, a competition in pain tolerance. It would thereby make the conflict about much more than the disposition of Taiwan. The war would become about the security of the allied societies themselves, and their fates would now be much more clearly tied to the solidity of the alliance and the coalition’s ability to resist Chinese coercion.
