The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict

by Elbridge A. Colby

Another alternative for China is a protracted war in which it could seek to regenerate the ability to mount another invasion attempt while improving the conditions for this subsequent effort. In this model, Beijing could work to rebuild its invasion force while seeking to erode the ability and resolve of Taiwan’s allies and partners to effectively defend the island against the next assault. It could try to do this by selectively escalating or expanding the conflict in ways that played to its advantages, such as by using targeted strikes or economic leverage to pressure key defenders or supporters. The logic of such an approach would be for China to apply pressure on Taiwan and the other defenders by continually degrading their defenses and resolve while regenerating its forces to prepare them to create or exploit a window of vulnerability in Taiwan’s defense.12