The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict

by Elbridge A. Colby

But it should not agree to add Georgia or Ukraine to NATO because both are highly exposed to Russian attack while offering no meaningful advantage to the alliance that is remotely comparable to the costs and risks that their defense would impose on it.10 Sweden and Finland are a closer call. Both have capable militaries, and the alliance is already exposed in Northern Europe with the Baltic states and Norway. Although Sweden and Finland would provide rather modest added capability, given the alliance’s massive power advantage over Russia, they would bring an advantageous geographic position and capable, forward-deployed forces; moreover, adding them would involve bringing forward and solidifying an existing defensive line rather than creating an entirely new defensive position. Thus, although the United States should be cautious, their inclusion in NATO might be worthwhile.