The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict

by Elbridge A. Colby

Taiwan is the most attractive target for China’s focused and sequential strategy for several reasons. The first is related to China’s own interest in it. For decades, the Chinese Communist Party has made clear that “reunification” with Taiwan is a national imperative.6 Xi Jinping himself has described this goal as “essential to realizing national rejuvenation.”7 But Taiwan is also an attractive target because of its importance to Washington’s differentiated credibility. That is, even though Taiwan is not a full-fledged US ally, nervous regional states are unlikely to see its fate as materially different from that which would befall full-fledged US allies in similar circumstances. Indeed, these actors, wondering about US differentiated credibility, are more likely to regard Taiwan as a canary in the coal mine than as a bird of a different feather.