The critical element in Russia’s theory of victory that NATO can most readily redress is its local conventional force advantages, and specifically its ability to seize and hold allied territory. Assuming that nuclear brinkmanship contests are most likely to end in a halt in place, the crucial thing is to ensure that Moscow cannot seize and hold allied territory. This is the sine qua non of Russia’s theory of victory; without an ability to hold allied territory, Moscow’s escalate to terminate strategy would not gain it much.
