The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict

by Elbridge A. Colby

The utility of the fait accompli—and by extension the importance to Beijing of having the ability to conquer its neighbors—is a critical point that is often confused in popular discussion. Many argue that Beijing does not want to create a territorial empire in Asia.69 This very well may be true, but it misses the point from a military planning point of view. Even if it does not want to directly control or annex other states, China does aspire to be the predominant power in Asia, and that means overcoming any anti-hegemonic coalition or preventing one from forming. The best way for it to do so is by using a focused and sequential strategy to compel states to leave the coalition. Yet as we have seen, the punishment approach is unlikely to give China the leverage it needs to achieve this end. Rather, Beijing’s better course is to use the fait accompli against coalition members, conquering their key territory in order to compel their disaffiliation from the coalition. Therefore, from a practical military point of view, China will want to be able to conquer substantial parts of Asia. This is because only the ability to seize and hold the territory of its neighbors will give Beijing the degree of power needed to force key regional states to disaffiliate from alliance with the United States and from the anti-hegemonic coalition more broadly.