The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict

by Elbridge A. Colby

The key regions of the world, ranked in order of geopolitical importance, are: • Asia. Asia comprises approximately 40 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP), and given that it is the locus of about two-thirds of global growth, its share of global economic activity is rising.4 Taken together, the Asian economies are already far larger than that of the United States and are increasingly advanced economically and technologically. From a geopolitical perspective, Asia is therefore the world’s most important region. • Europe. Europe comprises nearly one-quarter of global GDP, and its economies are on the whole considerably more advanced than most of Asia’s.5 For the United States, it is therefore the critical secondary external region after Asia. • North America. North America is geopolitically important because of the United States. According to widely used estimates, the United States accounts for just under one-fifth of global GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. Largely because of this, most assessments rank the United States first in global power, though some indicate that China has surpassed it.6 The rest of North America is modest in power and share of global economic activity, making the region unique in that it is overwhelmingly dominated by a single state. • The Persian Gulf. The Persian Gulf is a far smaller and less important region than the others, comprising less than 5 percent of global GDP.7 The Persian Gulf is home, however, to roughly 40 percen...