The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict

by Elbridge A. Colby

In a recapture approach, the United States and any potentially participating confederates would face a choice analogous to Beijing’s in its initial conquest: they could employ a punishment strategy to seek to make China give up the captured ally, or they could rely primarily on brute force to seize it back. A sufficient recapture approach does not necessarily require freeing every piece of seized territory; rather, it means liberating the captured state’s key territory to ensure that the ally can be restored as an independent state contributing to the coalition. In the context of Taiwan, this would very likely require freeing the main island—but not, for instance, the offshore islands of Quemoy and Matsu.