In light of this, a natural next target for Beijing would be the Philippines. It is a long-established US ally, access to which is important for US military operations in Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific.15 At the same time, it is a relatively weak state, and there are significant voices within it favoring accommodation toward China. Manila’s willingness to defend itself might, then, not be as high as necessary to enable an effective defense by the United States and other allies and partners. Vietnam, though not a US ally, might also make a good target. Hanoi is likely to be at least an
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