The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict

by Elbridge A. Colby

the United States has established that it can conduct an effective denial defense of Taiwan, sustain the nuclear deterrent, and maintain an effective counterterrorism enterprise, it is prudent for the United States to do two things. First, it should make some provision for a simultaneous conflict in one particular scenario: between NATO and Russia in Eastern Europe. This is the only plausible scenario in the contemporary international environment in which the United States, if it did not act simultaneously, might be unable to defeat a plausible adversary’s theory of victory against an ally.31 Second, the United States should maintain missile defenses sufficient to defeat an intercontinental missile attack by any state other than Russia or China.