More than almost any single event since 9/11, the 2003 US invasion of Iraq shifted the balance of power in the region in favor of Iran and Soleimani. It gave Soleimani a chance to support Iraq’s majority Shia population, influence a government in Baghdad that had shed so much Iranian blood during the Iran-Iraq War, and target vulnerable US forces. Iran would capitalize on the US miscalculation not through conventional means, but by developing a sophisticated irregular warfare campaign.