Exponential: Order and Chaos in an Age of Accelerating Technology

by Azeem Azhar

For each, he has established how long it took to reach 75 per cent penetration of the American market, meaning three-quarters of adults (or households, if appropriate) have access to it. While each product is different, there are common themes to the ways they take off. The spread of most technologies follows a ‘logistic curve’, or S-curve. At first, the uptake of a technology is slow. Early adopters are experimenting with it; while producers are figuring out exactly what to make and how to price it, and are building up their capacity. At some point the product hits an inflection point, and its rate of spread increases very rapidly. So the first two parts of the curve look like a classic exponential curve: slow and boring at first, then rapid and exciting. Unlike a pure exponential curve, however, the S-curve has a limit. After all, there are only so many cars or washing machines a family can own. As the market gets saturated, the uptake tapers off: there are fewer families who don’t own a digital camera or microwave, or fewer steelmakers who haven’t moved to electric arc furnaces. The steep part of the graph starts to flatten. In other words, the pattern of uptake looks like a lazy ‘S’.