Exponential: Order and Chaos in an Age of Accelerating Technology

by Azeem Azhar

This means Wright’s Law has an edge over Moore’s Law. Both describe the way the cost of technology diminishes exponentially. But Moore’s Law simply describes performance improvements over time. There are scenarios it can’t account for – those striking microchip-factory workers, for example. Wright’s Law, meanwhile, connects progress to the quantities produced. Say that for every doubling of production, the unit cost of a gadget drops 20 per cent. If production doubles every two years, costs will drop by 20 per cent every two years. If production doubles every year, costs will drop by 20 per cent every year. Wright’s Law holds true even during that mythical strike: if production stops, the reduction in cost stops.