The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology

by Ray Kurzweil

As this book is being written, the country is debating changing the Social Security program based on projections that go out to 2042, approximately the time frame I’ve estimated for the Singularity (see the next chapter). This economic policy review is unusual in the very long time frames involved. The predictions are based on linear models of longevity increases and economic growth that are highly unrealistic. On the one hand, longevity increases will vastly outstrip the government’s modest expectations. On the other hand, people won’t be seeking to retire at sixty-five when they have the bodies and brains of thirty-year-olds. Most important, the economic growth from the “GNR” technologies (see chapter 5) will greatly outstrip the 1.7 percent per year estimates being used (which understate by half even our experience over the past fifteen years).