The Singularity Is Nearer: When We Merge with AI

by Ray Kurzweil

One of the great challenges of adapting to technological changes is that they tend to bring diffuse benefits to a large population, but concentrated harms to a small group. For example, autonomous vehicles will bring massive benefits to society—from saved lives to lower pollution, eased congestion, more free time, and lower transportation costs. All of the United States’ population—projected to be almost 400 million by 2050—will share to varying degrees in these improvements.[157] Depending on which assumptions are used, estimates of the total potential benefits are valued at between $642 billion and $7 trillion per year.[158] Suffice it to say, it’s an enormous number. Yet the benefits to any single person are unlikely to totally transform their life. And even though we know statistically that tens of thousands of lives will be spared annually, there’ll be no way to identify which individual people avoid death each year.[159] By contrast, the harms from autonomous vehicles will be mainly confined to the several million people who work as drivers and will lose their livelihoods. These people will be specifically identifiable, and the disruption to their lives may be quite serious. When someone is in this position, it’s not enough to know that the overall benefits to society outweigh their individual suffering. They’ll need policies in place that help reduce their economic pain and ease their transition to something else that provides meaning, dignity, and economic security.