The Singularity Is Nearer: When We Merge with AI

by Ray Kurzweil

The first wave is often referred to as “deskilling.”[81] For example, a driver of a horse-drawn carriage who needed extensive skills at handling and maintaining unpredictable animals was replaced by an automobile driver who required fewer such abilities. One of the main effects of deskilling is that it is easier for people to take new jobs without lengthy training. Craftsmen would have to spend years developing the wide range of skills involved in shoemaking, but once assembly-line machines took over much of this work, a person could get a job after a much shorter time learning to operate a machine. This meant that labor costs fell and shoes became more affordable, but also that low-paying jobs replaced higher-paying ones. The second wave is “upskilling.” Upskilling often follows deskilling, and introduces technologies that require more skill than what came before. For example, providing drivers with navigation technologies requires them to learn how to use electronics that were not previously part of the required skill set. Sometimes this means introducing machines that take an ever larger role in manufacturing but that require sophisticated skills to operate.