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the country has more than six thousand fund managers, and modern mutual funds have been around for about forty years. The chance that some manager had a fifteen-year winning streak sometime over those forty years is not at all unlikely; it’s 3 in 4. The CNN Money headline could have read Expected 15-Year Run Finally Occurs: Bill Miller Is the Lucky One. Sure enough, Miller’s luck ran out, and in the following two years the market “handily pulverized him.”
Rationality: What It Is, Why It Seems Scarce, Why It Matters
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