“perpetual peace” in 1795. One of them is democracy, which, as we saw in the chapter on correlation and causation, really does reduce the chance of war, presumably because a country’s cannon fodder is less keen on the pastime than its kings and generals. Another is international trade and investment, which make it cheaper to buy things than to steal them, and make it unwise for countries to kill their customers and debtors. (The European Union, awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012, grew out of a trade organization, the European Coal and Steel Community.)

