there was every day fresh evidence that the models inside the minds of experts could be seriously flawed. In professional sports, for example. For decades, former players went unquestioned as experts in the evaluation of both players and strategies. Then came the statistical revolution. Complete outsiders, armed with mathematical models, had made a mockery of the experts. The market forces that punish ignorance were far more intense in pro sports than they were in disease control; the mistakes made by epidemiologists didn’t cause their teams to lose and their bosses to waste tens of millions
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