The total number of infected people had risen from forty-five to sixty-two, most of them in Wuhan. Outside of China, two cases had already been identified in people who had traveled from Wuhan—one in Thailand, the other in Japan. Lawler pointed to those two cases and asked: What were the odds that there were fewer than one hundred cases in all of China if there were already two infected international travelers from Wuhan? Then he launched into a Carter-like back-of-the-envelope calculation, which is to say that it was both academically laughable and fantastically insightful. Redneck
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