“I think this data is close enough to convince people that this is going to be bad and we will need to pull the full array of NPIs [social interventions],” wrote Carter on February 28. “All that is left is when (timing).” Back in 1918, St. Louis had introduced social interventions one week after the first local cases, he pointed out. Philadelphia had waited three weeks. Already there were cities in the United States behind St. Louis, and maybe even behind Philadelphia.
