Dan Kuida

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Individual differences in the quality of judgments are another source of pattern noise. Imagine a single forecaster with crystal-ball powers that no one knows about (including herself). Her accuracy would make her deviate in many cases from the average forecast. In the absence of outcome data, these deviations would be regarded as pattern errors. When judgments are unverifiable, superior accuracy will look like pattern noise.
Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
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