Noise

by Daniel Kahneman

When pathologists analyzed skin lesions for the presence of melanoma—the most dangerous form of skin cancer—there was only “moderate” agreement. The eight pathologists reviewing each case were unanimous or showed only one disagreement just 62% of the time. Another study at an oncology center found that the diagnostic accuracy of melanomas was only 64%, meaning that doctors misdiagnosed melanomas in one of every three lesions. A third study found that dermatologists at New York University failed to diagnose melanoma from skin biopsies 36% of the time. The authors of the study conclude that “the clinical failure to diagnose melanoma correctly has grievous implications for survival of patients with that potentially fatal disease.”